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Hurricane Andrew - August 24-26, 1992

Hurricane Andrew Forecasting

Table 4 - Hurricane Andrew average track forecast errors (nautical miles), non-homogeneous sample.
Forecast period (hours) Forecast period (hours)
Model 12 24 36 48 72 Model 12 24 36 48 72
Official
(no. of cases)		 33 65 106 141 243 CLIPER 35 81 148 233 437
(37) (35) (33) (31) (27) (37) (35) (33) (31) (27)
AVNO 60 75 89 97 132 BAMD 45 93 141 182 268
(15) (15) (14) (13) (11) (37) (35) (33) (31) (27)
BAMM 40 81 121 151 229 BAMS 39 77 114 135 197
(37) (35) (33) (31) (27) (37) (35) (33) (31) (27)
QLM 39 64 93 130 192 NHC90 35 77 135 197 330
(19) (18) (17) (16) (14) (37) (35) (33) (31) (27)
VBAR 32 60 93 138 287 GFDL 36 71 93 117 209
(23) (23) (23) (23) (23) (9) (9) (9) (9) (7)

Watches & Warnings

Table 5 - Watch and warning summary, Hurricane Andrew.
Date/Time
(UTC)		 Action Region
22/1500 Hurricane Watch Northwest Bahamas from Andros and Eleuthera Islands northward through Grand Bahama and Great Abaco
22/2100 Hurricane Warning Northwest Bahamas from Andros and Eleuthera Islands northward through Grand Bahama and Great Abaco
Hurricane Watch Florida east coast from Titusville southward through the Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
23/0600 Hurricane Warning Central Bahamas including Cat Island, Great Exuma, San Salvador, and Long Island
23/1200 Hurricane Warning Florida east coast from Vero Beach southward through the Florida Keys to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay
Tropical Storm Warning Florida east coast north of Vero Beach to Titusville
Hurricane Watch Florida west coast south of Bayport including the greater Tampa area to north of Flamingo
23/1800 Hurricane Warning Florida west coast south of Venice and Lake Okeechobee
Tropical Storm Warning Florida west coast north of Venice to Bayport
24/0900 Hurricane Warning discontinued Bahamas except for Bimini and Grand Bahama
24/1300 Hurricane Warning discontinued Remainder of the Bahamas
Hurricane Warning discontinued Florida except for Lake Okeechobee and the west coast south of Venice to Flamingo
Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch discontinued Florida east coast from Vero Beach to Titusville and Florida west coast from Venice to Bayport
Hurricane Watch Northern Gulf coast from Mobile, Alabama to Sabine Pass, Texas
24/1800 Hurricane Warning discontinued Remainder of Florida
24/2100 Hurricane Warning Northern Gulf coast from Pascagoula, Mississippi through Vermillion Bay, Louisiana
25/0900 Hurricane Warning West of Vermillion Bay, Louisiana to Port Arthur, Texas
Hurricane Watch West of Port Arthur through High Island, Texas
25/1500 Hurricane Warning West of Port Arthur through the Bolivar Peninsula Texas
Hurricane Watch West of the Bolivar Peninsula to Freeport, Texas
26/0700 Hurricane Warning discontinued East of Grand Isle, Louisiana
Hurricane Watch discontinued West of the Bolivar Peninsula
26/1100 Hurricane Warning discontinued West of Port Arthur, Texas
26/1300 Hurricane Warning discontinued West of Cameron, Louisiana
26/1700 Hurricane Warning discontinued Remainder of Gulf coast

Lead Times

Table 6 - Watch and warning lead times for landfall sites during Hurricane Andrew. Lead time refers to time lapsed from advisory to landfall.
Location Type Lead Time (Hours)
Northwest Bahamas Hurricane Watch 30
Hurricane Warning 24
Southeast Florida Hurricane Watch 36
Hurricane Warning 21
South-central Louisiana Hurricane Watch 43
Hurricane Warning 24
Hurricane Andrew forecast model diagrams Aug 23 10pm
Additional Hurricane Andrew forecast models and diagrams
Eye Passage Probabilities
Table 7. Chances of the center of Hurricane Andrew passing within 65 miles of listed locations by date and time (EDT) indicated; probabilities in percent with X for less than 2 percent.
ADVISORY ISSUE TIME: 16/11PM 17/5AM 17/11AM 17/5PM 17/11PM
PROBABILITY END TIME: 19/8PM 20/2AM 20/8AM 20/2PM 20/8PM
SVMG 110N 640W 4 5 7 6 X
TTPP 106N 614W 7 8 9 6 X
TTPT 112N 608W 8 10 11 8 X
TGPY 120N 618W 8 10 11 9 X
TBPB 131N 595W 11 14 15 14 4
TVSV 131N 612W 9 11 14 12 3
TLPL 138N 610W 10 12 15 14 5
TFFF 146N 610W 10 12 15 15 8
TDPR 153N 614W 10 12 15 15 10
TFFR 163N 615W 10 12 16 16 13
TAPA 171N 618W 9 11 15 16 15
TKPK 173N 627W 8 10 14 15 14
TNCM 181N 631W 8 9 14 14 14
TISX 177N 648W 6 7 12 12 9
TIST 183N 650W 6 7 11 12 10
TJPS 180N 666W 4 5 9 10 6
TJSJ 184N 661W 4 5 10 11 8
MDSD 185N 697W X X 5 5 X
MDCB 176N 714W X X 2 3 X
MTPP 186N 724W X X 2 2 X
TNCC 122N 690W X X 3 2 X
MDPP 198N 707W X X 3 4 X
MBJT 215N 712W X X 2 3 X
MYMM 224N 730W X X X 2 X
ST CROIX VI 6 7 12 12 9
ST THOMAS VI 6 7 11 12 10
SAN JUAN PR 4 5 10 11 8
PONCE PR 4 5 9 10 6
ADVISORY ISSUE TIME: 18/5AM 18/11AM 18/5PM 18/11PM 19/5AM
PROBABILITY END TIME: 21/2AM 21/8AM 21/2PM 21/8PM 22/2AM
TBPB 131N 595W 4 3 X X X
TVSV 131N 612W 3 3 X X X
TLPL 138N 610W 6 6 2 X X
TFFF 146N 610W 9 9 4 2 2
TDPR 153N 614W 11 13 7 4 3
TFFR 163N 615W 15 18 13 8 6
TAPA 171N 618W 18 21 17 14 10
TKPK 173N 627W 16 20 17 14 12
TNCM 181N 631W 17 21 19 19 17
TISX 177N 648W 12 16 14 14 12
TIST 183N 650W 13 17 16 16 15
TJPS 180N 666W 8 13 12 12 11
TJSJ 184N 661W 10 15 14 14 14
MDSD 185N 697W 3 6 7 8 8
MDCB 176N 714W X 2 3 3 3
MTPP 186N 724W X 2 3 3 3
MDPP 198N 707W 3 6 8 8 9
MBJT 215N 712W 3 7 8 9 11
MYMM 224N 730W X 4 5 6 8
MYSM 241N 745W X 2 3 4 6
MYEG 235N 758W X X 2 2 3
MYNN 251N 775W X X X X 2
ST CROIX VI 12 16 14 14 12
ST THOMAS VI 13 17 16 16 15
SAN JUAN PR 10 15 14 14 14
PONCE PR 8 13 12 12 11
ADVISORY ISSUE TIME: 19/11AM 19/5PM 19/11PM 20/5AM 20/11AM
PROBABILITY END TIME: 22/8AM 22/2PM 22/8PM 23/2AM 23/8AM
TAPA 171N 618W 2 X X X X
TKPK 173N 627W 4 X X X X
TNCM 181N 631W 7 3 X X X
TISX 177N 648W 6 3 2 2 2
TIST 183N 650W 9 5 3 3 3
TJPS 180N 666W 7 5 4 4 4
TJSJ 184N 661W 9 6 4 4 4
MDSD 185N 697W 6 7 6 6 6
MDCB 176N 714W 3 4 3 3 4
MTPP 186N 724W 3 6 4 4 5
MDPP 198N 707W 8 11 9 9 9
MBJT 215N 712W 11 16 13 13 12
MYMM 224N 730W 8 14 11 12 11
MYSM 241N 745W 6 14 9 10 10
MYEG 235N 758W 3 10 6 6 7
MYNN 251N 775W X 8 3 4 5
MUGM 200N 751W X 6 3 3 4
MUCM 214N 779W X 3 X X 2
MYAK 241N 776W X 7 3 3 5
MTCA 183N 738W X 4 3 3 3
MYGF 266N 787W X 6 2 2 4
ST CROIX VI 6 3 2 2 2
ST THOMAS VI 9 5 3 3 3
SAN JUAN PR 9 6 4 4 4
PONCE PR 7 5 4 4 4
MARATHON FL X 2 X X X
MIAMI FL X 3 X X 2
W PALM BEACH FL X 4 X X 2
FT PIERCE FL X 3 X X 2
COCOA BEACH FL X 3 X X X
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 2 X X X
MARCO ISLAND FL X 2 X X X
BERMUDA X X 3 X 3
ADVISORY ISSUE TIME: 20/5PM 20/11PM 21/5AM 21/11AM 21/5PM
PROBABILITY END TIME: 23/2PM 23/8PM 24/2AM 24/8AM 24/2PM
MDSD 185N 697W 4 X X X X
MDCB 176N 714W 2 X X X X
MTPP 186N 724W 4 X 2 2 2
MDPP 198N 707W 7 3 3 3 2
MBJT 215N 712W 12 6 8 6 6
MYMM 224N 730W 13 7 9 8 8
MYSM 241N 745W 13 8 12 11 12
MYEG 235N 758W 10 5 8 9 10
MYNN 251N 775W 8 3 7 9 10
MUGM 200N 751W 5 X 3 4 3
MUCM 214N 779W 4 X 2 5 5
MYAK 241N 776W 7 2 6 8 9
MTCA 183N 738W 3 X 2 2 X
MYGF 266N 787W 6 2 6 9 9
MUHA 230N 824W X X X 3 3
MKJS 185N 779W X X X 2 2
MWCG 193N 814W